Researchers at Oregon Health & Science University predict the number of people who will be infected with the coronavirus will double every 6.2 days.

It was a grim reality delivered in a teleconference Wednesday from medical professionals with OHSU and the Oregon Health Authority.

“This virus is here to stay. We are actively planning for a surge in cases and the acute need for hospital beds to dampen the surge,” said Dr. Renee Edwards, senior vice president and chief medical officer at OHSU.

The above graphic shows what will likely happen with zero intervention. There will be a dramatic upswing of cases by the second week of April. The yellow line represents the need for ICU beds, accounting for 10% of cases diagnosed. The blue line shows the need for adult acute care beds. The OHSU models anticipate 19% of cases will be hospitalized.

“There’s good evidence these are not short stays,” said Peter Graven, research assistant professor of health economics in the OHSU-PSU School of Public Health. “They’re not the average five-day stays that many hospitals see. In fact, for acute care, they look to be about 14 days is a good average. And if patients need intensive care, it can be 21 days.”

One message was clear: we are still very early in the coronavirus exposure stage.

"It's going to be with us until we have a vaccine, which is going to be 18 to 24 months," said Edwards.

One concern addressed was the protection of health care workers. KATU has heard from several people about a shortage of personal protection equipment.

Edwards said OHSU is following guidance from OHA and the CDC and not putting health care workers at risk.