The coronavirus pandemic could last into 2021 and cause shortages for both the government and private sector along with strains on the hospital system, according to a leaked government report.
The 100-page report was published March 13 by the Department of Health and Human Services. The New York Times was the first to report on the document which was marked "unclassified" and "not for public distribution."
The government's predictions about the pandemic included the following:
- "A pandemic will last 18 months or longer and could include multiple waves of illness."
- "Supply chain and transportation impacts due to ongoing COVID-19 outbreak will likely result in significant shortages for government, private sector, and individual U.S. consumers."
- "Increasing COVID-19 suspected or confirmed cases in the U.S. will result in increased hospitalizations among at-risk individuals, straining the healthcare system."
These forecasts were part of a section of the report where the government offered several assumptions about the virus to help them craft a response plan.
The White House is not publicly discussing the potential for an 18-month pandemic. Earlier this week, President Donald Trump suggested the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak could last until July or August.
At a Thursday press conference, members of the White House coronavirus task force said the government would have a better sense of the duration of the pandemic after seeing the impact of the "15 Day to Slow the Spread" campaign, which includes strict social distancing recommendations.
The number of confirmed U.S. cases of coronavirus climbed toward 9,000 Thursday with more than 150 deaths.
Anti-viral treatments could be available in the near term, according to Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Stephen Hahn. Federal government agencies are also working with the private sector to see if the timeline for the remaining phases of a coronavirus vaccine trial could be sped up, Hahn said.
A team of epidemiologists at the Imperial College of London also arrived at an 18-month timeline for battling the coronavirus in the United States and Great Britain.
According to the study, achieving the high bar of suppressing the virus would minimally require "a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members."
The researchers concluded that those measures could be relaxed and tightened intermittently, but would have to be maintained at some level for up to 18 months or longer, which is the time for a vaccine to become widely available.
The overall timeline could be shortened if the goal is merely to mitigate the spread of the disease, which could be easier from a social and economic standpoint but could also result in more deaths.
The medical shortages and strains on the health care system forecast in the leaked HHS report already appear to be coming to fruition. Nursing homes and several hospital systems around the country have reported shortages of personal protective equipment (PPE), including face masks, gloves, protective eyewear and gowns.
On Wednesday, President Trump invoked the Defense Production Act putting the country on a "wartime" footing to boost private production of the critical health and medical resources needed to combat the coronavirus. Under the act, the federal government can direct private industry production of necessary items, such as N95 face masks, ventilators and other equipment. The government can also secure those items for distribution and limit civilian purchases.
Following the Wednesday announcement, American companies Honeywell and 3M began increasing production of industrial N95 masks by the tens of millions for use by health care professionals, according to Vice President Mike Pence.
President Trump also ordered the deployment of two U.S. Naval ships with 1,000 hospital beds each. The USNS Comfort and USNS Mercy will be deployed to New York and California respectively. Preparations for the deployment could take more than a week, according to the Pentagon.
President Trump also announced Thursday that he was in discussions with the CEO of Carnival Cruise Lines about converting their ships into floating hospitals. U.S. cruises were halted after several serious outbreaks resulting in hundreds of coronavirus infections.
Both the declaration of a national emergency under the Stafford Act, which Trump did Friday and the invocation of the Defense Production Act were outlined in the leaked report as strategies to mitigate widespread community transmission of the virus.
The leaked report also carefully details the responsibilities and authorities of virtually every executive branch agency, from the Departments of Agriculture and Energy to the Pentagon and Department of Homeland Security.